The GOP Coalition Is Cracking, and the Polls Show It

On the October 22, 2026 episode of Breaking Points, Krystal and Saagar spoke with Rich Baris, a MAGA-friendly pollster who has correctly called several recent election cycles. Baris delivered a grim assessment of Republican prospects in the upcoming midterms, arguing that the party's coalition is fracturing along the same demographic lines that made Donald Trump's 2024 victory possible in the first place. The conversation also covered a controversial Ohio ad, a fake polling scandal, and the deepening dysfunction in the housing market.

The Coalition That Won in 2024 Is Falling Apart

Baris's central argument is straightforward: Donald Trump assembled a winning coalition in 2024 by pulling in voters who had never supported Republicans before—younger voters, Hispanic voters, and independents. But those voters were not natural Republicans. They gave Trump a chance because he promised a different kind of governance: no new foreign wars, accountability for the ruling class, and an America First agenda.