10/1/26: Bond Yields Hit 24 Year High, Bibi Exploits Plane Hijacking, Paxton Says Trump Hurting Texas GOP

October 1, 2026

AI Summary

5 min read

Bond Yields Hit 24-Year High as Iran War Strains Markets, While Midterm Dynamics Shift

The 10-year Treasury yield has surged to 5.3%, its highest level since 2002—blowing past the Great Financial Crisis era and returning to a benchmark not seen since the aftermath of the dot-com bust. The episode opens with this as the dominant story, then moves through a hijacking incident involving an Israeli flight, a suspicious UK airbase incident blamed on Iran, and new midterm data showing Trump's policies are fracturing his own coalition in Texas.

The Bond Market Signal and Iran's Strategic Calculus

The yield on the 10-year Treasury note has climbed to 5.3%, pushing past its 2007 intraday peak. Saagar notes this is a 24-year high, and the key concern is the velocity of the move. "When you start moving with this amount of speed, it's going to start breaking things," he says. "What things it breaks, we don't exactly know."

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What you'll learn

1 (00:00) **Show Open & Host Banter** - Krystal and Saagar introduce the show from a remote setup and preview the major topics.
2 (06:56) **Bond Yields Hit 24-Year High** - The yield on the 10-year Treasury note surges to 5.3%, a level not seen since 2002, signaling a new era of higher borrowing costs.
3 (15:44) **Diesel Crisis and the White House Dilemma** - US diesel prices hit a fresh all-time high, and the White House is holding crunch talks on a potential export ban to lower domestic fuel costs.
4 (25:36) **Midterms: The Iowa vs. Texas Economic Divide** - The hosts pivot to the midterm map, arguing that the economic pain is geographically uneven, explaining why Democrats are doing better in Iowa than Texas.
5 (26:38) **Marco Rubio Orders Iranian Delegation to Leave UN** - The US ordered the entire Iranian delegation to leave the country after an impasse in negotiations, a highly unusual diplomatic move.
6 (31:10) **The FlyDubai Hijacking Incident** - New details emerge about an alleged hijacking attempt on a FlyDubai flight from Israel to Dubai, where a co-pilot reportedly tried to crash the plane.
7 (36:13) **The UK Fairford Base Incident and Iran** - UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham claims there are “strong indications” Iran was behind a plot at RAF Fairford, but the details of the incident remain deeply confused.

+ Full timestamped outline available in the app

Show Notes

Ryan and Saagar discuss bond yields reaching a multi decade high, Bibi exploits plane hijacking for election, Paxton says Trump convention hurting his shot in Texas.

Ro Khanna: https://x.com/RoKhanna?lang=en

Christopher Leonard: https://www.christopherleonard.biz/

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