Democrats Surge Ahead of Republicans in Major New Poll (w/ Nate Silver)
September 15, 2026
AI Summary
5 min readDemocrats Surge Ahead of Republicans in Major New Poll (w/ Nate Silver)
The New York Times just dropped a brand new poll less than 50 days before the election, and Nate Silver—founder of Silver Bulletin and co-host of Crooked Media's new show Still Counting—joined to break it down. Silver began with a characteristic caveat: he usually wouldn't think an individual poll worth discussing, but this one is an exception, both because the Times is one of the highest quality pollsters and because "this does match a trend that we've detected elsewhere in the Silver Bulletin data"—a series of quite strong polls for Democrats both nationally and locally since Labor Day.
What the Poll Actually Shows
The Times poll found Democrats with an eight-point (almost nine-point) generic ballot margin among likely voters. Silver explained that this is consistent with what his model has been detecting. He described two versions of their generic ballot average: one taking all polls as they come, and one making an adjustment for likely voters. The distinction matters because turnout is not as high in midterms as in presidential years—and historically, the opposition party is more fired up than the president's party.
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What you'll learn
- 1 (00:27) **New York Times Poll Drop & Why This One Matters** - Dan introduces the NYT poll and Nate Silver, who explains why this single poll is worth discussing despite the usual rule against fixating on individual polls.
- 2 (01:49) **The Eight-Point Generic Ballot Margin & Likely Voter Adjustment** - Nate breaks down the poll's finding of a D+8.5 margin among likely voters and explains the mechanics of the likely voter screen.
- 3 (03:38) **What an Eight-Point Wave Would Actually Deliver** - Nate calibrates expectations for how big a "blue wave" this would be, given gerrymandering and the shrinking number of competitive seats.
- 4 (04:56) **The Senate Map: Red Territory and the Talarico/Paxton Dynamic** - The conversation turns to the specific Senate races, focusing on how Democrats can overcome Trump+11 states and the role of candidate quality.
- 5 (07:12) **Michigan, El-Sayed, and the Underperformance Question** - Nate addresses concerns about Democratic candidates who may be too liberal for their states, using El-Sayed in Michigan as an example.
- 6 (08:10) **Why Expert Forecasters Are Too Cautious** - Nate diagnoses a systematic problem with how political handicappers like Cook Political Report assess the race.
- 7 (10:16) **New Hampshire and the Limits of Fundamentals** - The discussion moves to New Hampshire as a case where fundamentals and polls align, unlike Alaska or Texas.
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Guests on this episode
Show Notes
A major new NYT/Siena poll shows Democrats surging ahead of Republicans as voters sour on Trump. Dan Pfeiffer is joined by Nate Silver to break down the latest.
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