Abdul El-Sayed Wins Michigan Senate Primary in Closer-Than-Expected Race

Abdul El-Sayed, a progressive Muslim candidate, defeated Representative Haley Stevens by just one point—48.5% to 47.5%—to become the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Michigan. The result shocked political observers because polls had shown El-Sayed leading by anywhere from 10 to 19 points. His victory came despite being outspent 11-to-1, with $60 million in outside spending against him, including $32 million from AIPAC—more than any group has spent in any Democratic primary this cycle. El-Sayed now faces former Republican congressman Mike Rogers, who currently lives in Florida, in what will be one of the most closely watched Senate races in the country.

What the Polls Missed and Why the Race Was So Close

The polling miss in this primary was dramatic, and without exit polls, analysts are left guessing at the cause. The best theory is that pollsters oversampled highly engaged, college-educated voters—who overwhelmingly supported El-Sayed—and undersampled the rest of the Democratic primary electorate. This is essentially the opposite of the polling error that plagued 2024 general election polling, where non-college voters were undersampled.