The War Has Changed the Housing Market | April 2026 Update

April 17, 2026

AI Summary

5 min read

Dave Meyer, BiggerPockets' chief investment officer and housing analyst, examines how the ongoing war in Iran has disrupted the US housing market as of April 2026. He argues that elevated inflation from the conflict will keep mortgage rates high, curb demand, and lead to modestly lower home prices nationally, though a crash remains unlikely—and investors can still build portfolios by adapting their criteria.

Inflation Surge from the War

The war has driven oil prices up over 50%, pushing CPI inflation from 2.4% to 3.3% in one month—the first print since the conflict began. Meyer expects inflation to linger in the 3-5% range, not the 9% peaks of 2022, based on trends like three months of 0.4% monthly PCE growth (the Fed's preferred measure), which annualizes to about 4.8%. This supply-push inflation raises input costs: construction expenses have climbed $10,000-$17,000 per average home in the past year and will rise further due to pricier diesel for shipping lumber, metals, and appliances. Consumers face squeezed spending at the pump, reducing discretionary budgets including housing.

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What you'll learn

1 (00:00) **Intro to War's Housing Impact** - Dave Meyer hooks on Iran war as black swan shifting rates, inflation, sentiment, and home values negatively
2 (01:22) **Negative Market Implications** - Predicts slower sales, higher rates (up 0.5% already), reduced affordability/demand without disaster
3 (02:13) **War Drives Inflation Surge** - CPI jumps from 2.4% to 3.3% post-war; expects 3-5% range ongoing due to oil shocks
4 (02:48) **Inflation's Housing Effects** - Hits consumer spending, raises construction/input costs ($10k-17k/home already up), spikes shipping via oil
5 (03:43) **Mortgage Rates Rebound** - From 5.99% low to 6.3-6.5%; tied to oil/inflation expectations pre-CPI print
6 (06:02) **Bond Yields Drive Rates** - 10-year Treasuries (not Fed funds) correlate highly; inflation pushes yields up amid $39T debt
7 (07:25) **Investor Sentiment Survey** - BiggerPockets Pulse: expectations for lower rates plummet (30% to 12%); now median 6-6.5%, 27% see 6.5-7%

+ Full timestamped outline available in the app

Show Notes

The Iran War is already changing the housing market. Home sales have slowed, mortgage rates jumped back up, a reversal in crucial housing affordability is well underway—and we’re not done yet. Oil prices are causing interest rates to fly upward, and guess what? Gas prices might not go down for another year. Is this the nail in the coffin for the return to a healthy housing market?

We’re getting into it all in April 2025’s housing market update.

The implications of the Iran War are massive, and we’re feeling it right now. Homebuyers got a glimpse of hope when rates fell below 6% a couple of months ago. Now, we’re back up to the mid-6s. But with less competition in the market, buyers have greater opportunities. Real estate investors, especially those with cash on hand, may have even more time to take advantage. Dave shares the five things investors must do to get a good deal in this market.

But will the housing market crash? Your favorite influencer on TikTok is telling you yes, but what does Dave say? If you want proof that a housing crash will/won’t happen, Dave is showing you exactly what’s happening in the market today and whether it could lead to a home price crash, real estate selloff, or something different altogether.

In This Episode We Cover

The massive consequences of the Iran War on the U.S. housing market

Why mortgage rates cannot fall back down with the state of today’s economy

Even more buyer power? Why you should be aggressively negotiating in today’s market

Five things investors must do to protect themselves against buying bad deals

Think real estate is an inflation hedge? Think again.