The Great Stall is ON | March 2026 Housing Market Update

March 20, 2026

AI Summary

5 min read

Dave Meyer's March 2026 housing market update describes a continuation of the "great stall," with national home prices showing minimal nominal growth of 0.5-1.5% but declining when adjusted for inflation. Affordability is improving amid stagnant prices and lower rates, while sales remain slow and inventory growth is decelerating. Regional divergences persist, with declines in 40% of markets, alongside rising insurance costs but actionable ways to cut them, new economic risks, and buying opportunities for patient investors.

Prices, Sales, and Affordability

Home prices remain flattish, aligning with the great stall pattern. Nationally, they rose nominally but fell inflation-adjusted, as growth lags behind rising incomes. Declines hit 40% of markets, concentrated on the West Coast and in Southeast states like Florida, Texas, and Louisiana, though most are modest outside those hotspots. Even appreciating Northeast and Midwest markets show decelerating growth. Meyer advises investors to underwrite deals assuming lower appreciation—perhaps 2-3% where it was 5%, or flat/declining where it stalled—since sustained slowing is expected.

Continue reading the full summary in the app — free to try.

Read Full Summary →

Free • No credit card required

Listen to Audio Summary Open in App

Never miss an episode of BiggerPockets Real Estate Podcast

Get every new episode summarized in your inbox — free, ~5 minutes to read.

No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.

What you'll learn

1 (00:00) **Intro: The Great Stall** - Dave Meyer introduces March 2026 housing update amid economic shifts like war in Iran, rising gas, weakening labor.
2 (01:34) **State of the Market Overview** - Previews prices, inventory, affordability, transaction volume, insurance, risks, and opportunities.
3 (01:59) **Home Prices Update** - National prices up 0.5-1.5% nominally but down inflation-adjusted; 40% of markets declining, mostly West/Southeast.
4 (04:29) **Sales Volume** - February sales up slightly to 4.1M annualized rate from January low, but stuck low since 2022; unlikely to surge despite rate drops.
5 (06:28) **Affordability Improvements** - Payment-to-income ratio at 27% (near 30% budgeting rule); driven by wage growth outpacing prices, lower rates.
6 (11:03) **Inventory Trends** - Mixed data (Realtor: up 8% YoY but slowing; Redfin: down 2%); growth losing steam, still 17% below pre-pandemic.
7 (22:44) **Insurance Deep Dive** - Premiums up 6% YoY (slowest since 2020, double inflation); doubled since 2016, up 72% since 2019.

+ Full timestamped outline available in the app

Show Notes

The “Great Stall” is on. Home prices are stagnating or falling, and the hot markets are slowing down. Now, 40% of the U.S. housing market is in decline. This is exactly what we were waiting for. But new risks to the real estate market could flip this “stall” into something more serious. War. Spiking oil prices. A white-collar recession. What happens now?

We’re back with March’s housing market update, giving you the newest data on home prices, inventory, affordability, and some surprisingly good insurance news.

We’re living through what Dave predicted many months ago—the Great Stall. And while it may not sound all that great, there are actually some huge benefits of this stagnant market being passed on to homebuyers and real estate investors. In fact, your home insurance may actually be shrinking because of it. We’ll get into detail on that in the show.

But what about new risks? War in the Middle East, spiking gas prices, and rising unemployment. All of these could have serious effects on real estate. This isn’t 2008 again, but we’re carefully watching one metric that (if increased) could pose a substantial threat to the housing market.

In This Episode We Cover

Why home prices “stalling” is actually a good thing for investors and homebuyers

Cheaper mortgage payments? Huge news for U.S. housing affordability

Why home insurance prices are actually going down in the areas you’d least expect

How to save 5%-10% on your landlord insurance immediately (90% of people don’t do this)

The biggest risks to real estate which could threaten the housing market

Buyers: It’s time. Why you should start negotiating hard on home price