The Correction Will Get Even More Severe | Sept. 2026 Housing Market Update

September 25, 2026

AI Summary

5 min read

"60% of US homes sold in August sold for below their original asking price." That single data point from Dave Meyer's September 2026 housing market update captures the shift he believes is now underway. After four years of the "great stall"—where high rates and low inventory kept the market in a tense equilibrium—Meyer argues the correction is finally arriving. Not a crash, but a genuine buyer's market where prices will grind down modestly and investors who adapt can find the best opportunities in years.

Why Mortgage Rates Aren't Coming Down

Meyer opens with a blunt message: plan on rates near 7% for the foreseeable future. As of mid-September, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate sits at about 7.2%, up from 6.1% at the start of 2026. The driver is not the Federal Reserve but the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, which has risen above 5%—its highest point in over 30 years for shorter-term treasuries. Mortgage rates track Treasury yields directly, not Fed policy.

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What you'll learn

1 (00:00) **Opening: The Correction Gets More Severe** - Dave Meyer introduces the September 2026 housing market update, noting that the market is finally breaking out of "the great stall" and that a clear signal on where prices are headed is emerging.
2 (03:07) **Mortgage Rates: Why They’re Stuck at 7%** - Meyer explains that mortgage rates are now above 7%, the highest in over a year, and that the primary driver is a spike in Treasury yields, not the Federal Reserve.
3 (05:50) **The Outlook: Rates Aren't Coming Down** - Meyer argues that because inflation is not improving, mortgage rates will not decline meaningfully, contradicting the common industry expectation of a quick return to low rates.
4 (08:20) **The Mechanism: Why Prices Must Fall** - Meyer explains that high rates crush affordability, pulling demand out of the market, which will force home prices to come down to restore market balance.
5 (13:50) **The Supply Surge: A Divergence is Forming** - Meyer presents the key data point: active listings jumped 4% month-over-month in August, an unusually large increase that signals a shift in seller behavior.
6 (14:50) **The "Rubber Hits the Road" Scenario** - Meyer predicts that the convergence of rising supply and falling demand will lead to modestly negative national home prices this winter.
7 (17:14) **Regional Reality: Where Deals Are Coming** - Meyer emphasizes that national data masks significant regional variation, with some areas already seeing big declines.

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Guests on this episode

Dave Meyer

Show Notes

More homes are for sale now than any time in the past six years. Mortgage rates just shot up to above 7% with no relief in sight. Markets are seeing (substantial) price cuts, and there could be much more to come this winter. So, is a crash on the way, or is this lukewarm correction simply becoming something stronger than we had imagined?

In this September 2026 housing market update, we’ll cover it all! First, we’ll talk about the massive change in mortgage rates this month, what’s caused it, and whether any relief is on the horizon. If rates stay high and more buyers are booted from the market, sellers will need to act—that means price cuts, concessions, and negotiating power for the buyers that remain.

But will this turn into a full-blown crash, or are there too many macroeconomic legs propping up the housing market? Dave gives his full risk report and shares where he thinks interest rates could end up hovering. Plus, the tactic he’s using to get 10%, 15%, or even 20% off real estate deals while sellers have their backs against the wall.

In This Episode We Cover

What caused mortgage rates to surge earlier this month to the 7%+ range

Why prices could drop even more in winter and the serious discounts Dave is finding

Some of the best and worst real estate markets in the U.S. (which are holding up?)

Chances of this market flipping from a correction to a housing market crash

What happens as buyers exit the market with the most homes for sale in six years?

And So Much More!

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