New Zillow Forecast: 10 Predictions for the 2026 Housing Market

January 9, 2026

AI Summary

5 min read

🎙️ The Voices & The Context

The Format: Solo analytical monologue breaking down Zillow's 10 predictions for the 2026 housing market, with host comparisons to his own forecasts.
The Key Players:
- Host: Dave Meyer, trained data analyst, 15-year housing market expert, and real estate investor; known for BiggerPockets podcast and data-driven predictions.
The Vibe: Educational and analytical with optimistic undertones, laced with skeptical humor on trendy predictions—engaging for real estate enthusiasts.

🗝️ Key Themes & Topics

Dave Meyer dissects Zillow's 2026 forecasts point-by-point, agreeing on core market balance (flat prices, steady rates) while nitpicking details like gimmicky trends.

Topic 1: Home Prices & Underwater Mortgages – Zillow predicts modest 1.2% national rise after flat 2025; Dave leans slightly negative (-1%), citing stalled inventory, economic fragility, and soft demand—market shifting to balance, not growth.
Topic 2: Mortgage Rates & Sales Volume – Rates stay above 6% due to sticky inflation (tariffs, debt); Dave agrees (avg. ~6.1%), sees slight existing-home sales bump to 4.26M (from ~4M), signaling pent-up demand release.
Topic 3: New Construction & Rents – Builder starts weakest since pre-pandemic amid incentives; Dave flips it positive for buyers/investors (cheaper new homes, rate buy-downs). Rents ea

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What you'll learn

1 (00:00) **Zillow's 2026 Housing Predictions Overview**
2 (01:25) **Prediction 1: Home Values Rise Modestly (1.2%)**
3 (05:16) **Prediction 2: Fewer Owners Underwater**
4 (08:13) **Prediction 3: Mortgage Rates Above 6%**
5 (16:29) **Prediction 4: Existing Home Sales Climb (4.3%)**
6 (18:50) **Prediction 5: New Construction Weakest Since 2019**
7 (23:01) **Prediction 6: Apartment Renters See Relief**

+ Full timestamped outline available in the app

Show Notes

Zillow released its new 2026 housing market predictions and…I’m not sure I agree with them. From home price to mortgage rate predictions, “kidfluence” steering decisions, and the rise of the lifestyle renter, I’m going through all 10 of Zillow’s predictions and sharing which I agree with, which I’m confused by, and which made me laugh. Even with a few very interesting predictions, I do think some core forecasts will actually play out in 2026.

When’s the last time you asked your kid, “Hey buddy, where do YOU want to live?” and rented based on their answer? Well, Zillow believes that your toddler does have a serious influence on your next home. But that’s not all. In 2026, renting could become cool again as more “lifestyle renters” plan NOT to buy, even if mortgage rates drop. This could be a good sign for investors looking to keep long-term tenants, but you’ll need the right type of property.

We’ll also touch on Zillow’s home price prediction (and why they’re more positive than Dave), the floor for mortgage rates in 2026 (will we break into the 5s?), and why buying a new-build could get even better.

In This Episode We Cover

Zillow’s 2026 housing market predictions (prices, rates, rents, and more!)

Why housing demand could bounce back (but by how much?)

The “kidfluence” and why your seven-year-old really calls the shots when house hunting

One prediction that Dave audibly started laughing at (does anyone believe this?)

The rise of “lifestyle” renters and a good trend for real estate investors

Will AI find your next home? Why Zillow is betting on a breakthrough

And So Much Mo