Homes Are Selling for Much Less Than You Think | July 2026 Housing Market Update
July 24, 2026
AI Summary
5 min readIn May 2026, nearly half of all U.S. home sales included a seller concession — the highest share on record, according to Redfin data going back about a decade. On homes that do offer them, the average concession is close to 5% of the purchase price. That means a $300,000 home can effectively cost $15,000 less than the recorded sale price, even though the headline number never changes. This is the central story in Dave Meyer’s July 2026 housing market update for BiggerPockets: the market looks flat on the surface, but real discounts are hiding in plain sight for investors who know where to look.
The Great Stall Continues
Meyer opens by reiterating what he has called “the great stall” for years. The housing market is not crashing and not booming. Nationwide inventory is essentially flat — less than 1% different year over year. New listings are up about 8%, but pending sales are also up 6%, meaning buyers are absorbing the extra supply. The result is equilibrium: prices are up only 1% to 2% nominally, depending on the data source, and are still falling in inflation-adjusted terms. Meyer calls this a “housing correction” because real returns are negative, but he stresses it is a slow, boring correction, not a dramatic one.
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What you'll learn
- 1 (00:00) **The Great Stall: Market Flat, But Concessions Are at Record Highs** - Dave Meyer introduces the thesis: headline prices are flat, but nearly half of home sales include a seller concession, averaging ~5% of the purchase price on those deals.
- 2 (01:48) **Inventory Is Dead Flat** - Year-over-year inventory is unchanged (less than 1% difference), confirming the "great stall" narrative.
- 3 (05:39) **Prices: Modest Nominal Gains, Real Decline** - Headline prices are up ~1–2% year-over-year, but inflation-adjusted prices are still falling.
- 4 (08:59) **Mortgage Rate Outlook: Mid-6s for 2026** - Dave expects rates to stay in the mid-6% range for the rest of the year, with no drop below 6% in 2026.
- 5 (10:35) **The Opportunity: Seller Concessions** - Nearly half of home sales include a concession; on those deals, the average concession is ~5% of the sale price.
- 6 (18:19) **How to Use Concessions in Your Bid Strategy** - Dave advises working with an agent to negotiate concessions instead of (or alongside) price reductions.
- 7 (21:17) **Risk Report: Delinquencies Are Below Pre-Pandemic Levels** - National delinquency rate is 3.35%, below the long-term average of ~4% and ~20% lower than 2019.
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Guests on this episode
Show Notes
We’ve reached the midway point of 2026, and with six months of housing market data to pull from, one thing is clear: the headlines don’t match reality.
The media is full of economic uncertainty, global conflict, and even housing crash predictions. But the actual data points to something else entirely.
The 2026 housing market? It’s surprisingly stable. No, there isn’t a ton of activity. Interest rates remain elevated. We’re still in the “Great Stall.” But things are more predictable. And that’s all investors need to make informed decisions.
Not to mention, there’s a third factor—a silver lining—that not nearly enough real estate investors are paying attention to. You won’t see it reflected in the data, but investors are scooping up real estate deals at massive discounts.
To be clear, this isn’t happening in every market. But if it’s happening in yours—or a market you’re targeting—the next six months could be your window to buy rental properties at prices we might not see again.
In This Episode We Cover
Why homes are selling for much less than the average sale price suggests
The single biggest opportunity for real estate investors in 2026
The markets with the highest percentage of seller concessions right now
Updated risk report: what’s the likelihood of a housing crash?
The often-overlooked benefits of buying in a “boring” housing market
And So Much More!
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