He Bought After 2008, Sold at the Peak, and JUST Bought Again
April 1, 2026
AI Summary
5 min readBrian Burke returns to the BiggerPockets Real Estate Podcast to discuss real estate market cycles, focusing on emerging distress in commercial sectors and opportunities for buyers who time entries correctly. Hosts Dave Meyer and Henry Washington explore his recent purchases, deal-sourcing tactics, and sector-specific strategies amid shifting seller attitudes and lender workouts.
Market Cycle Predictions
Burke maintains his forecast from prior appearances: the downturn ends in 2025, a transition and bottoming process occurs in 2026, and buyer opportunities peak in 2027. He attributes delays to sellers' reluctance to accept losses, but notes changing psychology—owners now discuss handing keys back or selling at wipeouts after hoping to "survive till '25." Delinquency rates are rising, especially in multifamily (highest since the Great Financial Crisis), signaling more pressure. Commercial multifamily over 50 units faces widespread distress from lenders extending maturities via small principal reductions to maximize recovery, not to aid borrowers. Residential shows less distress due to equity buffers, but overall market weakness reduces competition.
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What you'll learn
- 1 (00:00) **Intro and Guest Background** - Hosts introduce episode on distressed asset opportunities and welcome Brian Burke, cycle-timing expert
- 2 (01:38) **Big Picture Market Prediction** - Brian reiterates 2025 dive ends, 2026 transition, 2027 buyer heaven for commercial and residential
- 3 (03:22) **Catalysts for Buyer Leverage** - Sellers shifting from denial to action amid rising delinquencies
- 4 (05:56) **Short Sales and REOs Returning** - Brian shares recent senior housing buys at 45% of loan balance via lender short sales
- 5 (08:32) **Commercial vs. Residential Dynamics** - Commercial pricing irrationality persists; residential offers fixer-uppers without bidding wars
- 6 (11:14) **Sector-Specific Buying Strategy** - Play cycles: buy ahead in recovering sectors like senior housing, wait on multifamily
- 7 (13:21) **Why Some Deals Don't Pencil Yet** - Higher rates/expenses challenge listed multifamily; off-market scrappy sourcing needed
+ Full timestamped outline available in the app
Show Notes
Few investors have gotten the real estate market as right as Brian Burke. He bought heavily discounted deals after 2008, sold at the post-2020 peak, waited years to buy, and finally just made his next big move—taking down a profitable, large investment property for 50%+ off. If he’s finally getting back into the market, should you, too?
Brian has owned thousands of rental units across dozens of apartment complexes, bought and sold 500+ single-family homes, and seems to innately know the time to buy, the time to sell, and, as he puts it, the time to sit on the beach. Brian is seeing seller pressure start to peak across a specific type of investment property—loans are coming due, and banks are forcing owners’ hands. This is the opportunity we’ve all been waiting for.
In today’s episode, Brian explains how to get in front of these deals before other investors, the sector seeing the biggest discounts (50%+ off), and what small, single-family investors should do now to capitalize on the growing opportunity everyone seems to be ignoring.
Heaven in 2027 for investors? Brian’s been saying it for years—looks like he’s about to be proven right.
In This Episode We Cover
Are short sales back? How desperate sellers are giving up their properties at massive discounts
How Brian scored 50%+ off on an investment property most investors overlook
How to find seriously discounted properties before they reach the general public
Brian’s real estate prediction for 2026 and 2027 (it could get a lot better for buyers)
Are syndications…dead? What Brian says to do be
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