20% of Homes See Price Cuts (Sellers Face Reality) | Oct. 2026 Housing Market Update
October 16, 2026
AI Summary
5 min read20% of Homes See Price Cuts: Sellers Finally Getting Realistic
In the October 2026 housing market update, Dave Meyer, real estate investor and BiggerPockets CIO, presents a central thesis that runs counter to the fearful headlines dominating financial media: the housing market is not crashing, but it is softening in ways that create genuine buying opportunities for long-term investors. The most telling signal? More than 20% of home sellers cut their prices in just the last four weeks — the highest share on record according to Redfin's data, which only goes back a few years but still marks a meaningful shift from the stubbornness that characterized 2023, when only about 18% of sellers cut price.
The Market Is Stable on Paper, Weakening Beneath the Surface
The headline numbers look deceptively normal. Home prices are up 2.5% year over year, right at the historical average. New listings are flat. Active listings are flat. Days on market and sale-to-list ratios are flat. "By and large, we have the same market today that we had a year ago," Meyer notes — and that stability has persisted even as mortgage rates climbed to 7.6% from 6.3% a year earlier.
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What you'll learn
- 1 (00:04) **Introduction: Thesis - A Buying Opportunity in a Softening Market** - Dave Meyer states his core thesis: sellers are finally cutting prices, creating a buying opportunity for investors.
- 2 (01:06) **Episode Roadmap** - Dave outlines the three segments of the show: market data, a specific opportunity, and a risk report.
- 3 (02:14) **Market Update: Prices Are Stable, But Not Beating Inflation** - National home prices are up 2.5% year-over-year, which is historically average, but not keeping pace with inflation.
- 4 (03:50) **Market Update: Supply & Demand Show a Weakening Trend** - While monthly data looks flat, weekly data reveals a market moving in a weaker direction.
- 5 (07:25) **Forecast: Prices Will Soften, Creating Discounts** - Dave predicts prices will continue to weaken, especially heading into winter, which he calls his favorite time to buy.
- 6 (09:56) **The Big Opportunity: 20% of Sellers Are Cutting Prices** - Dave highlights that over 20% of home sellers have cut their price in the last four weeks, a record high for this metric.
- 7 (17:45) **Why Sellers Are Finally Conceding** - Sellers are realizing mortgage rates are not coming down meaningfully, making waiting a losing strategy.
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Guests on this episode
Show Notes
Seller desperation just hit a recent peak, creating a major buying opportunity in the housing market. Over 20% of properties saw a price cut in the past four weeks, and with mortgage rates only moving up, sellers are running out of options. Winter is coming, and with it, less demand—so what are sellers going to do? More price cuts could be in store.
We’re back with October’s housing market update! We’ve been saying for months that buying opportunities would get bigger, and we’re seeing it unfold in real time. Sellers are getting desperate and starting to cut prices at levels we haven’t seen in years. Fewer homes are changing hands, so buyers are getting their pick as deals sit on the market for months.
Dave is eyeing a specific set of homes as the biggest opportunity right now (and they’re on the market).
So what do you do if you’re ready to buy your next rental but don’t know if you’re catching a falling knife? Dave shares the properties he’s looking for, what he’s offering to get day-one equity, and whether the chances of a housing crash have gone up since our last report.
In This Episode We Cover
How to easily “filter” the homes with the most seller desperation (and get a steal of a deal)
Why home price cuts are rising and whether winter will bring even deeper discounts
The chance of this housing market correction becoming a full-on crash
Why Dave is looking for easily spottable, on-market properties to buy
How much to offer a seller if their home has been sitting on the market for months
And So Much More!
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