AI Summary
5 min readIn late 2024, a company called Fermos emerged from Australia with plans that seemed almost too audacious to be real: an NVIDIA-backed AI data center firm with just $50 million in annual revenue aiming to raise roughly $5.5 billion in what would have been the country's second-largest IPO ever. The pitch was built on a $10 billion loan from Blackstone and a partnership with data center giant CDC to construct $73 billion worth of capacity under a project called Southgate—including the nation's largest data center, promised by April of this year. As host Ed Zitron puts it dryly, "Just any guesses, you know, put down some money, how likely do you think that was?" The answer, it turns out, was not at all. CDC pulled out of the project with only about 2.5% of the capacity built, less than a month before Fermos was meant to go public. What followed was a slow-motion collapse that Zitron argues should serve as a warning for the entire AI infrastructure bubble—and an indictment of how American financial journalism has failed to do its job.
The Anatomy of a Dodgy IPO
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What you'll learn
- 1 Main Outline
- 2 (00:02) **Episode Introduction** - Ed Zitron introduces the topic: Fermos, an NVIDIA-backed Australian AI data center company attempting a massive IPO
- 3 (03:48) **Project Southgate Collapse** - CDC pulled out of the $73 billion data center project, having built only 2.5% of the planned capacity
- 4 (04:47) **IPO Pricing Disaster** - Initial $50 billion valuation collapsed as banks cut the share price from $11 to $8.25, with reports it may go as low as $6-7
- 5 (05:59) **Fermos Is a Stinker** - Zitron declares the company fundamentally rotten, with 90% of revenue backlog from just two customers
- 6 (06:34) **Impossible Ambitions vs. Tiny Revenue** - Fermos has $50 million in annual revenue but plans to build 10 gigawatts of capacity costing hundreds of billions
- 7 (07:18) **Australian Media Does Its Job** - The Australian financial press has been aggressively skeptical of Fermos in a way American media never is with similar companies
+ Full timestamped outline available in the app
Guests on this episode
Show Notes
In this week's Better Offline monologue, Ed Zitron talks about the brittle state of Australian AI data center company Firmus’ IPO, its dodgy underlying numbers, and how the Australian media has set an example of how you should actually cover an AI company.
NOTE: This IPO was officially postponed shortly before going to press. The content still rocks.
Newsletter: Credit Crunch: https://www.wheresyoured.at/credit-crunch/https://www.afr.com/technology/firmus-blockbuster-ipo-finds-itself-in-a-36-hour-spiral-of-doom-20261008-p613ul
https://www.afr.com/markets/equity-markets/hedge-fund-uncovers-30-red-flags-against-firmus-20261008-p613t7
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