125: Did Netanyahu misread Trump? With Ross Douthat

June 21, 2026

AI Summary

5 min read

In the spring of 2025, the United States and Iran signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) that effectively ended a short, intense war—one that Israel’s Benjamin Netanyahu had long sought and helped persuade Donald Trump to launch. The war went perfectly from a military standpoint, but the regime did not collapse, the global economy wobbled, and the Trump administration chose a deal over escalation. Ross Douthat, a New York Times columnist, argues that the episode reveals a fundamental misreading by Netanyahu of what the United States—and especially Donald Trump—was willing to sustain. The relationship between the U.S. and Israel is now “strained,” not broken, but the strain is real and rooted in a mismatch of expectations that has been building for years.

The war that went right and still failed

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What you'll learn

1 (00:06) **Introducing Ross Douthat** - New York Times columnist joins to discuss the US-Iran MOU and the state of the US-Israel relationship after the June 2025 war.
2 (03:15) **"Strained" is the Right Word** - Douthat assesses the US-Israel relationship as strained, not broken, after the war.
3 (05:13) **Netanyahu's Role in Pushing Trump to War** - The war started partly because Netanyahu talked Trump into believing regime change in Iran was achievable.
4 (06:05) **Why "Strained" Not "Broken"** - The war ended without a quagmire, limiting damage to the alliance.
5 (11:08) **Trump's Real Motive: The Venezuela Model** - Trump was driven by his own strategic vision, not just Israeli pressure.
6 (14:18) **Israel's Ace Card: Demonstrating US Capabilities** - The Israeli Air Force's performance proved American hardware could defeat Russian/Chinese defenses.
7 (15:22) **Assessing the MOU: Vance's View and Douthat's View** - The deal is a "less than ideal" outcome from a war that didn't achieve its aims.

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Show Notes

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Ross Douthat, author and New York Times columnist, joins the podcast to discuss this fraught moment in the US-Israel relationship. We discuss Netanyahu’s role in shaping Trump’s regime-change gamble in Iran, the limits of American willingness to absorb prolonged pain, how American identification with Israel – and not just hostility or bigotry in some political spaces – makes policy disagreements feel uniquely personal and intense. We also dig into Israel’s failure to explain its wars, especially in Gaza, and the rise of conspiracism on the American right.

Ross comes to the conversation shortly after interviewing Vice President JD Vance on, among other things, the strained state of the US-Israel relationship. He offers some direct advice: Israelis must argue specifics, engage the center-left, and tell their story clearly, or risk losing reasonable supporters they cannot afford to lose.

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Musical intro by Adam Ben Amitai.