Animal Spirits Podcast
Animal Spirits Podcast

The Biggest Risk in 2026 (EP. 444)

December 24, 2025

AI Summary

5 min read

🎙️ The Voices & The Context

  • The Format: This casual host-driven banter between financial podcasters recaps a volatile 2025 market year through charts, personal asides, and cultural tangents, blending reflective market analysis with light-hearted holiday chit-chat.
  • The Format: Casual chat between two longtime co-hosts.
  • The Key Players:
    • Michael Batnik & Ben Carlson: Sharp-witted hosts with playful chemistry—Michael drops rapid-fire charts and pop culture refs, while Ben counters with deadpan skepticism—focusing on year-end market weirdness, life hacks, and investing gripes.

🗝️ Key Themes & Topics

Hosts dissect 2025's market madness, from AI bubble fears to resilient small caps, while weaving in charity, Gen Z woes, and private market pitfalls amid holiday distractions.

  • Topic 1: 2025 Market Recap & Holiday Irrelevance: Despite a 19% drawdown and 17% S&P return looking "crazy" in isolation, it's average historically; holiday trading (e.g., 2018's Christmas Eve bottom) rarely matters, with AI hype deflating but setting up 2026 upside.
  • Topic 2: Valuations, Flows, & Small-Cap Setup: S&P top 10 at 40% weight sparks "50% or 30% first?" debate; mid-caps at PE 15 (lowest relative since '90s) primed like internationals; equity ETF flows hit $900B, but small caps lag despite 46% Russell 2000 rebound from Ap

Continue reading the full summary in the app — free to try.

Read Full Summary →

Free • No credit card required

What you'll learn

  • 1 (02:35) **Holiday Market Reflections**
  • 2 (03:42) **2025 Market Year in Review**
  • 3 (06:10) **Oracle Stock Reaction to AI Deal**
  • 4 (07:00) **Market Risks for 2026**
  • 5 (08:21) **S&P 500 Concentration Debate**
  • 6 (10:17) **Mid/Small-Cap Valuation Opportunity**
  • 7 (11:27) **Stocks Doubling in 2025**

+ Full timestamped outline available in the app

Show Notes

On episode 444 of Animal Spirits, ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Michael Batnick⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ and ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Ben Carlson⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ discuss what a normal year in the stock market looks like, time traveling through drawdowns, the case for small/mid cap stocks, how many stocks double each year, record cash balances, the economy keeps growing, financial nihilism, gambling, illiquidity risk in private investments and much more.


This episode is sponsored by TradePMR & Fabric by Gerber Life.


Sign up for The Compound newsletter and never miss out: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠thecompoundnews.com/subscribe⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠


Find complete show notes on our blogs:

Ben Carlson’s ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠A Wealth of Common Sense⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

Michael Batnick’s ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠The Irrelevant Investor⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠


Feel free to shoot us an email at ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠[email protected]⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ with any feedback, questions, recommendations, or ideas for future topics of conversation.

 

TradePMR Disclosure: TradePMR, Inc. Member FINRA/SIPC. Securities offered through TradePMR Inc. TradePMR, Inc. is a wholly owned subsidiary of Robinhood Markets, Inc. Please review the full Terms and Conditions at (https://tradepmr.com/asset-match-terms-and-conditions) for the complete rules, requirements, and obligations that apply to participation in the program.


Investing involves the risk of loss. This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be or regarded as personalized investment advice or relied upon for investment decisions. Michael Batnick and Ben Carlson are employees of Ritholtz Wealth Management and may maintain positions in the securities discussed in this video. All opinions expressed by them are solely their own opinion and do not reflect the opinion of Ritholtz Wealth Management.

The Compound Media, Incorporated, an affiliate of ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Ritholtz Wealth Management⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠, receives payment from various entities for advertisements in affiliate

Animal Spirits Podcast

More from this podcast

Animal Spirits Podcast →