The Unicorn Hangover: Why Private Markets Are Sitting on a Trillion-Dollar Problem

There are roughly a thousand private companies valued at over $1 billion—so-called "unicorns"—in the venture and growth landscape today. In the past twelve months, only six of them have reported a down round. Six. Christian Manafa, head of private growth strategies at VanEck, dropped that stat on the Animal Spirits podcast and let it hang in the air. The implication is stark: most of these companies are carrying valuations from the 2021–2022 era that are almost certainly too high, and they are doing everything they can to avoid admitting it.

The 2021 Hangover That Won't End

The 2021–2022 period was, in Manafa's telling, one of the craziest periods ever for late-stage growth companies. Zero interest rates for a decade meant money was sloshing around everywhere. "Everybody was at home, all day every day. Hop on a Zoom, hop on a Zoom," as one host put it. Companies were getting funded on ideas without business models. The result was an absolutely incredible run-up in valuations without the underlying operating metrics to support them.