Animal Spirits Podcast
Animal Spirits Podcast

10 Reasons to be Bullish (EP. 472)

July 8, 2026

AI Summary

5 min read

The Vibecession Is Over

Michael and Ben open the episode by declaring an end to the "vibecession." The sentiment surveys may still look glum, but out in the real world, people are celebrating. The Knicks run, the World Cup crowds, the Fourth of July semi-quincentennial—Michael sees it as reminiscent of the Roaring Twenties, when people emerged from World War I and the Spanish flu desperate for reasons to celebrate. "People in the real world want something to celebrate," he says, "and I'm saying it now. It's over. The vibe session is done." The too-online crowd will never be happy, but the people actually living their lives are having a good time.

Ten Charts That Say Bullish

Chart Kid Matt published "10 Reasons to Be Bullish," and the hosts walk through the most striking data points. The most surprising: over the last 12 months, earnings growth has actually been higher than stock market returns. Earnings are accelerating not just for the S&P 500 but for mid-caps and small caps too. Since the 2022 bear market bottom, the S&P 500 is up 24% annualized, yet valuations haven't expanded much because fundamentals have kept pace. Profit margins continue rising despite tariffs, war, higher energy prices, and supply chain disruptions. As technology improves, the hosts question why margins would necessarily revert.

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What you'll learn

  • 1 (01:36) **Vibecession is Over** - Michael declares the "vibecession" dead, citing summer celebrations, the World Cup, and a general public desire to celebrate after a tough period.
  • 2 (06:39) **Chart Kid Matt's 10 Reasons to Be Bullish** - Ben introduces Matt's bullish list, noting the generational difference in market outlook.
  • 3 (10:55) **Mag 7 Weight Dropping & Market Breadth** - The Mag 7's underperformance is broadening the market, which is seen as a positive development.
  • 4 (12:07) **Counterbalances to the Bullish Case** - Ben acknowledges the main bearish argument is that returns have been pulled forward, but historical percentile ranks are lower than expected.
  • 5 (16:16) **Global Market Concentration & AI Winners** - The US market is less concentrated than many others, and the AI trade is showing extreme winners like Samsung.
  • 6 (20:54) **Retail Investors as the Structural Bid** - Citadel Securities data shows retail investors are buying at a record pace, but they are rotating away from Mag 7 stocks.
  • 7 (24:39) **Hank Bessembinder's "Do Nothing" Portfolio** - A new paper shows that simply buying the largest stock in the S&P 500 each year has returned 11.3% annually since 1971.

+ Full timestamped outline available in the app

Show Notes

On episode 472 of Animal Spirits, ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Michael Batnick⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ and ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Ben Carlson⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ discuss: why the vibecession is over, experience vs. expertise, reasons to be bullish, reasons to be bearish, small caps on are fire, market concentration, Samsung's ridiculous profits, retail investors are moving markets, owning the biggest stock, it's expensive to live in San Francisco, the gambling boom, why car payments are rising and more.


This episode is sponsored by Pacer ETFs. Learn more at https://www.paceretfs.com/


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Ben Carlson’s ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠A Wealth of Common Sense⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

Michael Batnick’s ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠The Irrelevant Investor⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠


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Investing involves the risk of loss. This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be or regarded as personalized investment advice or relied upon for investment decisions. Michael Batnick and Ben Carlson are employees of Ritholtz Wealth Management and may maintain positions in the securities discussed in this video. All opinions expressed by them are solely their own opinion and do not reflect the opinion of Ritholtz Wealth Management.

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