All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

OpenAI Misses Targets, Codex vs Claude, Elon vs Sam Trial, Big Hyperscaler Beats, Peptide Craze

May 1, 2026

AI Summary

5 min read

OpenAI had a rough week in the press—a Wall Street Journal report revealed the company missed its 2025 targets for both weekly active users (it expected to hit 1 billion by the end of the year but still hasn't crossed that mark four months into 2026) and revenue. CFO Sarah Fryer is reportedly worried that revenue isn't growing fast enough to keep pace with OpenAI's $600 billion in compute commitments—a number roughly equal to the company's entire secondary-market valuation—and she has pushed back against Sam Altman's desire to IPO later this year, arguing the company isn't ready for public reporting standards. Meanwhile, Elon Musk's trial against OpenAI began, accusing the company of breaching its charitable trust and seeking $150 billion in damages, with Greg Brockman's diary entries surfacing as particularly damaging evidence. But the hyperscalers—Google, Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta—smashed earnings on the same day, announcing a combined $725 billion in CapEx guidance for 2026, driven by voracious AI demand. And on the biotech side, Eli Lilly's retatrutide data from phase three trials is generating enormous excitement for its triple-agonist mechanism that appears to burn fat while preserving muscle.

OpenAI's Missed Targets and the Compute Paradox

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What you'll learn

1 (00:00) **Cold Open & Banter** - The hosts share a funny segment from the "Miss Thing" podcast that roasted Chamath, setting a lighthearted tone.
2 (03:07) **OpenAI Misses Targets, But Product Momentum Shifts** - The Wall Street Journal reports OpenAI missed its 2025 targets of 1 billion weekly users and revenue, but the hosts offer a contrarian take.
3 (11:06) **Elon vs. Sam Trial Begins** - The high-profile trial over OpenAI's transition from a nonprofit to a for-profit kicks off in Oakland with notable courtroom drama.
4 (41:04) **Hyperscaler Earnings: CapEx Explosion & Free Cash Flow Shift** - Google, Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta report massive earnings and a combined $725 billion in CapEx guidance for 2026, signaling a structural market shift.
5 (52:52) **Vibe Coding Disaster: Agent Deletes Production Database** - A story emerges of an AI agent deleting an entire production database, sparking a debate on the risks of unsupervised AI coding.
6 (58:41) **Retatrutide: The "Wonder Drug" Craze** - Friedberg dives into the hype around Eli Lilly’s new triple-agonist peptide, which shows dramatic results in fat loss, muscle preservation, and metabolic health.
7 (66:38) **Friedberg's Supreme Court Experience** - Friedberg recounts attending the Monsanto/Roundup preemption case at the Supreme Court, describing it as a sacred, awe-inspiring process.