Iran War, Oil Shock, Off Ramps, AI's Revenue Explosion and PR Nightmare

The All-In hosts—Chamath Palihapitiya, David Sacks, Jason Calacanis, and guest Brad Gerstner (filling in for David Friedberg)—cover the Iran war's oil disruptions, AI firms' revenue booms and internal debates, the technology's poor public image, and Washington's new millionaire tax driving out wealthy residents.

Iran War Fuels Oil Volatility

Brent crude surged past $100 multiple times over five trading days amid the war's first 10 days, peaking at $119 after non-oil cargo ships were hit in the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran vows to keep closed per its new supreme leader. Prices stood at $99 during recording. Historical spikes (1978 oil shock, Gulf War, 2008 peak at $216 inflation-adjusted, Russia-Ukraine at $133 adjusted) provide context, but Goldman Sachs forecasts broader effects: core PCE inflation up from 2.2% to 2.4%, overall PCE to 2.9%, GDP down 30 basis points, and higher unemployment. Markets dipped S&P multiples from 24x to 21x on quagmire fears.