Why Almost Everyone Loses on Prediction Markets

Amid tensions from the war in Iran, this WSJ What's News episode covers supply disruptions driving up oil and aluminum costs, with knock-on effects for airlines and autos; aggressive M&A moves by GameStop and Anthropic; a detailed Journal investigation into why most prediction market users lose money; and BlackBerry's pivot to embedded software.

Strait of Hormuz Plan and Energy Ripple Effects

President Trump announced Project Freedom, a coordination effort among countries, insurers, and shippers to guide commercial ships through the Strait of Hormuz starting today, without U.S. naval escorts. Oil traders remain skeptical it will ease the supply crunch pushing prices higher. Surging fuel costs have already claimed Spirit Airlines, which shut down after failed bailout talks with the administration; pre-war bankruptcy exit plans collapsed as jet fuel doubled. The carrier is auto-refunding credit/debit purchases, with details at spiritrestructuring.com. Other airlines like Southwest are offering capped or reduced fares around $200 one-way for affected customers—check airline sites for specifics. Higher energy costs matter because they amplify war-related pressures on transport sectors, forcing operational cutbacks and consumer disruptions.