Thoughtful Money with Adam Taggart
Thoughtful Money with Adam Taggart

With Buybacks Ending, A Market Correction Is Not Off The Table | Lance Roberts

September 5, 2026

AI Summary

5 min read

The S&P 500 is stuck in a sideways consolidation near all-time highs, but the technical support that has kept it there is about to weaken. Corporate buybacks enter a blackout window starting this week, the largest options expiration on record is coming, and quarter-end rebalancing looms. Lance Roberts, portfolio manager at Real Investment Advisors, tells host Adam Taggart that a 3% to 5% correction back to the 50- or 100-day moving average is "certainly not off the table" even if a 10% or 20% decline is unlikely given the current consolidation pattern.

Jobs data and the Fed's mixed signals

The August payrolls report came in as a "four-sigma beat" at 162,000 jobs, but Roberts cautions against reading too much into a single month. The replacement rate is roughly 200,000 per month, so this is still a weak number in absolute terms. Seasonal factors — teachers and school support staff returning to work — likely inflated the headline. Wage growth ticked down to 3.1% year-over-year from 3.2%, leaving real wage growth near zero.

Continue reading the full summary in the app — free to try.

Read Full Summary →

Free • No credit card required

Listen to Audio Summary Open in App

What you'll learn

  • 1 (01:01) **Buyback Blackout Window Opens** - Lance Roberts identifies the start of the corporate buyback blackout period as a key vulnerability for the market.
  • 2 (06:09) **Jobs Report: Good News Is Bad News** - Roberts interprets the August payrolls beat as weaker than it appears, arguing it doesn't justify a rate hike.
  • 3 (09:40) **Fed Communication Chaos** - Roberts critiques the mixed signals from Fed officials, which undermine Chair Warsh's goal of removing the Fed's signal from the market.
  • 4 (12:19) **Treasury's Operation Twist: A Non-Event** - Roberts clarifies that the Treasury's recent bond-buying operation is routine balance-sheet management, not a major intervention.
  • 5 (15:25) **Hedging for a Short Squeeze in Bonds** - Roberts explains his cautious approach to betting on a bond short squeeze, distinguishing between trades and portfolio management.
  • 6 (17:19) **Technical View: A Quiet Correction Underway** - Roberts argues the market is already correcting through sideways consolidation, not a sharp decline, and sees risks ahead.
  • 7 (21:42) **Breadth Weakens as Algorithms Dominate** - Roberts details how rapid headline-driven algorithmic trading is making it impossible for retail investors to react in time.

+ Full timestamped outline available in the app

Guests on this episode

Lance Roberts Adam Taggart

Show Notes

LOCK IN YOUR EARLY BIRD PRICE DISCOUNT FOR THOUGHTFUL MONEY'S FALL ONLINE CONFERENCE (OCT 17TH) at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com/conferenceAs of today, the stock market is now entering the blackout window for corporate buybacks.Lance Roberts views this as making the market vulnerable to headline/geopolitical/rebalancing risk. Meaning the possibility of a correction is still on the table.We talk about the odds for this, as well as this morning's surprise payrolls beat and how Wall Street is interpreting that as a sign the Fed is more likely to hike, what to expects as the mid-term elections near, why the US values its gold reserves at an antiquated $42.oz, and, of course, what trades Lance's firm has made this week.For everything that mattered to markets this week, watch this new Market Recap.#jobsreport #marketcorrection #goldprice _____________________________________________ Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Promoter.We produce educational content geared for the individual investor. It’s important to note that this content is NOT investment advice, individual or otherwise, nor should be construed as such.We recommend that most investors, especially if inexperienced, should consider benefiting from the direction and guidance of a qualified financial advisor registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or state securities regulators who can develop & implement a personalized financial plan based on a customer’s unique goals, needs & risk tolerance.All the details on Thoughtful Money's relationship with the financial advisors it endorses, many of whom regularly appear on this program, can be found in the following documents. We highly recommend you review these documents as they cover the terms that will apply should you choose to work with one of these firms at any time after watching this video.Thoughtful Money Disclosure Document: https://thoughtfulmoney.com/disclosureThoughtful Money Agreement: https://thoughtfulmoney.com/agreementIMPORTANT NOTE: There are risks associated with investing in securities.Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, money market funds, and other types of securities involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods.A security’s or a firm’s past investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance.Thoughtful Money and the Thoughtful Money logo are trademarks of Thoughtful Money LLC.Copyright © 2026 Thoughtful Money LLC. All rights reserved.

Thoughtful Money with Adam Taggart

More from this podcast

Thoughtful Money with Adam Taggart →