Thoughtful Money with Adam Taggart
Thoughtful Money with Adam Taggart

Risk Of A 10% Market Correction Now Uncomfortably High | Lance Roberts

August 22, 2026

AI Summary

5 min read

Lance Roberts, portfolio manager and self-described masochist, opened this week's market recap with an unexpected confession: he just bought another house. The Austin market, ground zero of the housing correction, has seen prices drop sharply as interest rates rose. Sellers are desperate. Houses that sat on the market for two years are suddenly negotiable. Roberts and his wife, who have moved seven times together, saw the opportunity and took it. "This is really when you want to try to figure it out," he said. "As an investor, I want to try to buy things when I can get a value on the house or a stock or whatever it is."

The housing conversation quickly turned into a broader lesson about leverage, taxes, and opportunity cost. Roberts has carried no mortgage debt for years, but this time he is taking out a mortgage—not because he has to, but because he can earn a higher return on his capital elsewhere, specifically through a private lending business. "The spread between what I'm paying a mortgage and what I can earn justifies taking out the mortgage," he explained. Host Adam Taggart pressed him on the math: even with the mortgage interest tax deduction, you are still paying more in interest than you save in taxes. Roberts agreed that was true in isolation. The real point was not the deduction itself but the arbitrage. If you can borrow at 6% and deploy that same cash at 10% in a

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What you'll learn

  • 1 Timestamped Outline
  • 2 (00:01) **Episode Opening & Sponsor Messages** - Two ad spots (Google Chrome, PayPal) followed by initial market setup from Lance
  • 3 (01:40) **Welcome & Personal Housing Banter** - Adam introduces Lance; they discuss Lance's decision to buy another house
  • 4 (09:10) **Mortgage Debt Debate: Leverage vs. Being Debt-Free** - Adam questions whether carrying a mortgage is financially better than paying cash
  • 5 (21:05) **Treasury Secretary Bessent's Bond Market Intervention** - Discussion of the Treasury buying long-dated bonds to cap rising yields
  • 6 (27:52) **The Basis Trade Risk Explained** - Deep dive into why hedge fund Treasury speculation is a ticking time bomb
  • 7 (30:17) **Market Reaction to Bessent's Move** - How different assets are responding to the Treasury intervention

+ Full timestamped outline available in the app

Guests on this episode

Lance Roberts Adam Taggart

Show Notes

REGISTER FOR THOUGHTFUL MONEY'S FALL ONLINE CONFERENCE (OCT 17TH) at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com/conferenceAfter a rip-roaring rally that began in April, sending the market to new all-time highs, the S&P is now cooling off.Is this just a short breather before stocks race back to new highs soon?Probably not, thinks portfolio manager Lance Roberts.He assesses that the downside risks outweigh the upside ones, and that a correction of about 10% or so is the most likely outcome over coming weeks.He and I discuss why he thinks so, as well as the US Treasury's version of Operation Twist that launched this week, the future massive potential impact of stablecoins and, as usual, Lance's firm's latest trades.For everything that mattered to markets this week, watch this new Market Recap#marketcorrection #inflation #stablecoins _____________________________________________ Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Promoter.We produce educational content geared for the individual investor. It’s important to note that this content is NOT investment advice, individual or otherwise, nor should be construed as such.We recommend that most investors, especially if inexperienced, should consider benefiting from the direction and guidance of a qualified financial advisor registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or state securities regulators who can develop & implement a personalized financial plan based on a customer’s unique goals, needs & risk tolerance.All the details on Thoughtful Money's relationship with the financial advisors it endorses, many of whom regularly appear on this program, can be found in the following documents. We highly recommend you review these documents as they cover the terms that will apply should you choose to work with one of these firms at any time after watching this video.Thoughtful Money Disclosure Document: https://thoughtfulmoney.com/disclosureThoughtful Money Agreement: https://thoughtfulmoney.com/agreementIMPORTANT NOTE: There are risks associated with investing in securities.Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, money market funds, and other types of securities involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods.A security’s or a firm’s past investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance.Thoughtful Money and the Thoughtful Money logo are trademarks of Thoughtful Money LLC.Copyright © 2026 Thoughtful Money LLC. All rights reserved.

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